The Danger Of Skipping A Presidential Debate

On August 3, 2024, Former President Donald Trump reneged on a promise and announced he would skip the agreed-upon debate with Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, scheduled to air on ABC on September 10, 2024. Despite his decision, ABC plans to air the event, with or without Trump’s appearance, and Vice President Harris has confirmed her participation.

The Danger Of Skipping A Presidential Debate: 1980

The danger of skipping a Presidential debate is potentially fatal for a presidential campaign. Historical precedent, such as the 1980 presidential campaign, illustrates this. In 1980, incumbent President Jimmy Carter chose not to participate in the first televised debate against Republican candidate Ronald Reagan due to the inclusion of third-party candidate John Anderson. This decision is widely regarded as a significant strategic error by Carter, which ultimately boosted Reagan’s standing.

The debate, held on September 21, 1980, was organized by the League of Women Voters and was to feature Carter, Reagan, and Anderson. Carter, trailing in the polls and burdened by a stagnant economy and the Iran hostage crisis, needed the debate. Democrats have been making the case that Reagan was a dangerous extremist who wasn’t up to the job of president. The debate would give President Carter a chance to show his superior credentials and intellect or, so his campaign assumed.

However, Carter decided not to attend the debate. From that moment on, he had no chance to catch up with Reagan or to define Reagan negatively.

Why Did Carter Skip The Debate?

Carter’s campaign objected to Anderson’s inclusion, arguing that his candidacy was not significant enough to warrant participation. Carter believed that debating Anderson would give undue legitimacy to the third-party candidate and potentially split the vote against Reagan.

Despite Carter’s objections, the debate proceeded without him. Reagan and Anderson faced off in a nationally televised event that drew a vast audience. Reagan used the platform to effectively communicate his vision and policies, appearing focused, genial, and presidential. Left unchallenged by Carter, Reagan’s performance was well-received, which significantly enhanced his public image. Within days, polling showed a noticeable shift towards Reagan and away from Carter. Reagan never lost that momentum and won in a landslide

Carter’s absence reinforced the perception that he was avoiding direct confrontation and scrutiny. As the campaign progressed, Reagan gained momentum, and his support grew substantially. The missed opportunity to counter Reagan’s arguments and present his own case in a high-profile setting was a setback for Carter. Subsequent debates in which Carter participated could not undo the damage of his earlier absence.

Why Did Debates Change?

The 1980 incident led to the creation of the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) in 1987. The CPD took control of the debate process from the League of Women Voters to ensure more structured debates favoring the two major parties. Despite this, the CPD has faced criticism for often excluding third-party candidates.

In April 2022, the Republican National Committee (RNC) voted unanimously to withdraw from the CPD, citing perceived bias and a lack of fairness in the CPD’s handling of the debates. This decision reflects ongoing concerns about the CPD’s impartiality and debate format changes.

The 1980 debate incident serves as a lesson in the importance of engaging in direct dialogue with opponents, especially in high-stakes political environments. Former President Trump should consider the potential negative impact of skipping the debate, as it could hurt his campaign and boost Vice President Kamala Harris’s standing in the polls.